Predicting the End of Dry Season: BMKG’s Weather Projections

Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has produced meteorological estimates showing that the lengthy dry season is nearing its end. These estimates include a caveat: mild El Nino is projected to endure, providing a further understanding of weather patterns.

Extended Dry Season: Unusual Due to El Nino and IOD

Indonesia is facing an extraordinary dry season with high temperatures and little rain. Current conditions are caused by El Nino and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These factors cause very high temperatures and low rainfall in the dry season.

Moderate El Nino Forecast Duration of Dry Season

The modest El Nino impact’s endurance during dry season was discussed by BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati. Her prediction is that mild El Nino will last until February-March 2024. This was revealed at a closed-door El Nino meeting at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta on Tuesday (3/10/2023).

The El Nino climax occurred in September, as predicted by BMKG. In an official statement on Wednesday (4/10/2023), she said mild El Nino will last through February-March 2024.

Starting Rainy Season and Monsoon Dynamics

Weather forecasters must understand the rainy season change. Dwikorita noted the complex relationship between the rainy season and the Australian-Asian Monsoon transition. As the Asian Monsoon enters Indonesia, a rainy spell is forecast in November.

Because of the variable climate, the beginning of the rainy season in Indonesia will not always occur at the same time. Dwikorita emphasized that the gradual weakening of El Nino and the onset of the rainy season will bring an end to the dry spell. In some regions, the rainy season may begin earlier than November, while in others it may not begin until later. On the other hand, November is forecast to be a rainy month for the majority of the archipelago.

Predicting the Rainy Season Peak

The Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysical Surveys (BMKG) forecasts that the peak of the rainy season will occur during the months of January and February in 2024. These estimates are beneficial to the agricultural industry as well as the emergency preparedness sector.

Initial forecasts from BMKG’s Seasonal Rain Forecast for 2023/2024 indicated a later start to the rainy season than expected. It is anticipated that the rainy season would begin later in 446 Seasonal Zone (ZOM) areas, which accounts for 63.81% of all ZOM regions in Indonesia. This forecast highlights the necessity of cautious planning and being resilient, particularly in regions that are prone to adverse weather.

As Indonesia navigates these complicated weather patterns, the proactive forecasting and communication provided by the BMKG assist people and politicians make educated decisions that contribute to sustainable development and reduce the risk of catastrophic events.